Gainers rates and Tremonti refer debts
Ci risiamo. La calma apparente delle ultime settimane, con gli speculatori forse più attenti a seguire gli sviluppi della crisi libica che le vicende europee, è stata facilmente spazzata via dal fuoco incrociato di Moody’s, che ha rimesso nel mirino il governo di Atene, e, soprattutto, e della Bce, che ha ufficializzato l’intenzione di alzare il costo del denaro nel giro di due o tre mesi.
Tanto è bastato a riaccendere le pressioni sui titoli di Stato dei cosiddetti Peripheral countries (almost all except Germany) of the Old Continent, which also Standard & Poor's yesterday raised doubts about the ability to withstand market fluctuations. The tension has been felt mainly in the Iberian Peninsula, with rates close to ten Spaniards rose by 5.5% on fears generated from the auction being held in Lisbon, Portugal where the Treasury has still managed to get by. The placement of the two-year bonds, due 2013, ended with a good demand from investors and collected an amount of about one billion. The government in Lisbon had to sweeten the pill with yields rose from 4.08% to 5.99% in the previous auction. An increase of almost two percentage points lower than that recorded by the same securities on the secondary market (6.4%), but enough to splash the ten-year bond yields 7.78%, a historic high of the euro .
The storm did not spare Italy, which saw its Btp coaster traveling all morning, with peak performance of 5.08% to 5.04% and retreats. A critical threshold for Treasury securities, which was not passed by October 10 of 2008 and was immediately impacted on the spread with the Bund, climbed up to 182 points before falling back to 176 (Tuesday, was 173). A weigh on the state of Italian bonds is particularly waiting for the auction that there will be tomorrow when the Treasury will offer up to 5 billion BTP quarter past five years.
Giulio Tremonti's men should have no difficulty in operating the agencies, but it is likely that the operation will be more expensive than expected. And the bill will become even more salty when Jean Claude Trichet will decide to give in to the increasingly pressing demands of France and Germany for a rate hike is expected to now limited to a 0.25%.
Additional costs that should not be unprepared, however, the economy minister. At the maddening insistence on the need to maintain very strict government accounts, Indeed, Tremonti has added a series of transactions for its own debt to shelter from the possibility of this kind. In recent months, taking advantage of very low interest rates, led by the technical director of the Department of Treasury debt, Maria Cannata, have completed complex exchange transactions aimed at removing from the securities market risk, primarily BTP, due in 2011, 2012 and 2013, replacing them with bonds with longer maturities (from 2018) and therefore less subject to market volatility. One of the most significant sign was made in early February raking in 1.7 billion of securities that the Treasury would have to refinance from 2011 and 2012.
If the cleaning mechanism, which is nothing but an extension of the debt on terms not too onerous waiting for the storm passes, not enough, Tremonti can also count on a trove of Emergency rose from about 30 to 61 billion €. It is the availability account at the Bank of Italy, where the Treasury holds its liquidity to meet emergencies of cash. A Via XX Settembre, however, no drama. Official figures speak of estimated emissions in 2011 of 240 billion. The additional cost that the Ministry of Finance expects to pay interest and because of higher returns should not exceed the threshold of 3.5 billion (which will be added estimated at 76.3 for 2010). This is the amount allocated by the financial. That implies, he assured the barrel, "a prudential margin."